The St. Petersburg summit of Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Aug. 9 goes a long way towards repairing a major potential fault line on NATO’s eastern border.
The diplomatic rapprochement between Russia and Turkey after nine months of antagonism must be a welcome development in the ever more volatile times we live in.
It has been claimed that Turkey’s improved relations with Russia pointed to an Ankara-Moscow pivot, thus raising alarms in Western capitals.
I do not see it. There may be some unease, a bit of confusion or even slight amusement, but no cause for alarm.
When Turkish-Russian relations hit a low point last November after the Turkish jets shot down a Russian plane for violating Turkey’s airspace, there was a real worry that the NATO had faced being thrust into a new Middle Eastern crisis.
Turkey’s decision to down the Russian jet was seen as rash; Ankara was warned against a serious escalation that might drag NATO in a dangerous confrontation with Russia.
Diplomacy to resolve the risk of an escalation was encouraged and this is what has happened.
If you look at some of the comments of the Turkish media, Mr Erdogan’s visit to St. Petersburg came at a time when EU membership has ceased to be a goal for Turkey; the USA, Turkey’s key NATO ally, has been portrayed as enemy number one. “They were besieging Turkey, step-by-step”, according to one pro-Erdogan columnist at the Yeni Safak daily; it was time for Turkey to turn its face the other way. Abdurrahman Dilipak, writing at the right-wing Islamist Yeni Akit went even further. He called for Turkey to leave the United Nations as well.
Upon his return from Russia, President Erdogan himself issued the US with an ultimatum. “Choose between Turkey and FETO” he said, referring to US based preacher Fethullah Gulen and his followers in Turkey.
Turkey’s top diplomat, the Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, has also openly accused Turkey’s allies of encouraging the coup attempt.
Turkey’s shortcomings in employing a measured language of allied diplomacy in recent weeks may be partly responsible for the sloppy headlines in the western media.
The British tabloid The Daily Express claimed Turkey was threatening to leave NATO; The Daily Mail also read the Turkish foreign minister’s statement as a warning to the alliance that Turkey was ready to turn its back to its allies.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is not known for his diplomatic precision and clarity. The anti-Americanism and the anti-EU sentiments that have reached unprecedented levels after the 15 July coup attempt, are clear for all to see. So, for the foreign media to interpret the Foreign Minister’s comments as Turkey’s intention to exit NATO was slapdash, but not altogether surprising.
NATO had to take an usual step of rushing a statement saying that Turkey’s membership was not in question and NATO counted on the continued contributions of Turkey.
There is no doubt that Turkey’s already tense relations with its allies have been further strained, but it is premature to suggest they are reaching breaking point.
Turkey is scrutinizing the western response to its latest trauma of a violent botched coup and grumbling about the hypocrisy of its traditional allies. However, it cannot afford to pick too many diplomatic fights on too many fronts right now. The Turkish economy is already suffering. Sharp turns on foreign policy decisions by severing long-established institutional ties, will likely usher in further political and economic instability.
Mr. Erdogan has grabbed at the chance to consolidate his public support by whipping up anti-western sentiments across the society but pragmatism has always been a key tenet of his rule.
“You do not change horses midstream”, he said in response to his intelligence and military chiefs’ failure to foresee the coup attempt and inform him of the danger.
He is not likely to abandon the tried and tested vessel of Turkey’s most important military alliance while he is navigating the country through its biggest storm.
This post is also available in: Turkish
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