For those still unsure about the extent of the erosion of democracy in Turkey, the brusque ousting of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu by President Erdogan should have been enough to dispel any remaining doubts.
By forcing Mr Davutoglu to stand down as leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and effectively ending his tenure as prime minister, President Erdogan has consolidated his power in his pursuit to become the “Supreme” leader of the country. Simultaneously, he put a distance between himself and the failed foreign and security policies, piling the blame on Davutoglu.
Mr. Davutoglu’s abrupt departure cannot be dismissed as an internal power struggle within the AKP; because the latest and the most dramatic step by the supposedly non-partisan, neutral president is bound to have long-lasting ramifications inside and outside the country.
Mr Erdogan has long been systematically rendering every crucial state institution ineffective. With his latest action, he has, once again, overstepped his constitutional authority and undermined the entire system.
The way he shored up his one-man rule against the elected Prime Minister, without any significant resistance, is a testimony to how successful he has been in consolidating his power base.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced his decision in a defensive but deferential speech. “Nobody can hear a negative word from me about the president. His family is my family … I’m not resentful, I have no feelings of hatred,” he said.
The party faithful and the loyal observers in the media, have claimed there was neither a palace coup nor a political crisis.
Resigned acceptance of the status quo, both by the party and the country, seemed to have reassured Turkey’s financiers. The Stock Market where the Turkish Lira had its biggest drop of the year, only a day before, quickly reversed its losses soon after hearing Davutoglu’s sentimental farewell.
Clearly, Mr. Davutoglu is already seen as yesterday’s man. His era has been over even before he officially stands down from his post.
The handover will happen at the extraordinary party congress on May 22 where a new party leader will be chosen.
Now, the focus of the debate has become who will be hand-picked by Mr. Erdogan to serve as his un-questioningly loyal prime minister before his ceremonial post is finally transformed into an all-powerful executive presidency.
The strongest contestants, Binali Yildirim, the transport minister, Berat Albayrak, the energy minister, Numan Kurtulmus, the government spokesman and Bekir Bozdag, the justice minister, are all staunch allies of the President.
Financial markets and the majority of the public in Turkey may have taken kindly to Mr. Erdogan’s latest power-grab, but the reaction of the outside world is not likely to be so laid-back.
Among the suggested successors, Binali Yildirim was involved in the 2013 corruption scandal; Berat Albayrak is the son-in-law of the President, and Bekir Bozdag, the justice minister is never out of international limelight thanks to Turkey’s notorious rights violations.
With the-albeit mildly- dissenting Prime Minister out of the way, a quick readjustment of Turkish foreign policy is very likely.
This may mean, in Syria, the Turkish involvement may become deeper, not less.
The refugee deal with the European Union that Davutoglu had negotiated and the related visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to the EU, may come to a dead-end.
As for the already-strained relationship with the United States, I doubt that President Erdogan’s revised game plan is going to help smooth the way.
There has been much speculation whether Mr. Davutoglu’s cancelled trip to Washington this week with a planned meeting with President Obama have contributed to his fall from grace in Ankara.
I put that question to Henri Barkey, director of the Middle East Program at the Washington D.C based Wilson Centre. Henri Barkey thinks that the invitation to meet President Obama might have inadvertently contributed to Davutoglu’s demise, but it would not have been the only reason for Mr. Erdogan to feel threatened by Mr. Davutoglu.
“The invitation coming after Erdogan had clearly used up his welcome mat in Washington could have been interpreted as an attempt by the White House to bypass him. Erdogan wanted a White House invite and did not get it; he only got a side meeting because Obama needed to relay some very specific requests and information on Syria. But given the trend towards authoritarianism, it would have been foolhardy for the White House to invite President Erdogan. However, getting Davutoglu to Washington DC as a counterweight, even if the visit did not materialize, was a signal to Erdogan.” Henri Barkey says.
Claims by the AKP, including its now ousted leader, that it is business as usual, may reflect the idea of the “new normal” in Turkey, but looking from outside, it looks awfully like another big nail in the coffin of Turkey’s international credibility.
This post is also available in: Turkish
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