The military operation Turkey has launched into north Syria on October 9 has been met with widespread international condemnation, straining relations and crumbling long-established alliances.
Ankara’s unilateral action was described as reckless and counterproductive. Turkey was warned of irrevocable diplomatic and humanitarian consequences. A wide range of sanctions were threatened and some imposed.
Yet, two weeks on, despite angry outbursts, the outcome for Turkey’s powerful president Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be, by and large, in line with his envisaged endgame.
President Erdogan’s accusation that “the West sided with terrorists and all of them attacked Turkey” did not go unheeded domestically. Polarized it may be, the Turkish public, always distrusting of outsiders, unified behind what is presented as the “national cause”.
Well aware that the timing of the operation was closely linked to domestic political concerns, the main opposition party played it safe. The Republican People’s Party voted in favour of a resolution that authorised Turkish troops to enter northern Syria. With a conscripted army, sons of their voters, fighting the war and the risk of closure for being accused of high treason, they did not have much choice.
Soon enough, the ongoing crackdown on opponents turned into countrywide wave of arrests for any expression critical of the Turkish army’s offensive into northern Syria.
His opponents and own party rebels debilitated inside; President Erdogan has had the much-needed free hand to move and negotiate outside.
On Tuesday, more than six hours of talks in Moscow with President Putin ended with an agreement that would remove Kurdish forces within 20 miles from its border, giving Turkey the safe zone that it has been asking for.
It brought the Syrian government forces, along with Russians into northeast Syria; but in the eyes of Turkish public, that was no worse than having the NATO-ally Americans there, whose president “insulted and threatened” their leader and stood side by side with their adversaries.
True, Russia might turn out to be the biggest winner here, but as far as the Turkish establishment and the public opinion were concerned, suspicions of Russia would be nowhere near as great as the prevailing anti-Americanism and anti-western sentiments in the country, largely whipped up by its leaders in recent years.
No doubt, the long-term consequences of this new alignment will have painful consequences for Turkey and for the region. But for now, at least inside Turkey, the triumph of playing the world’s big actors against each other and winning the public relations war inside the country, unquestionably, belongs to President Erdogan.
This post is also available in: Turkish
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