In Turkey, where pre-election voting surveys and polls are notoriously unreliable, there is no fool proof way of predicting the result.
With the presidential and parliamentary elections just ten days away, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has stood largely unchallenged until today, may still manage to win.
There may not be reliable indicators for the possible outcome, but one thing is for certain. Try as he might, Mr. Erdoğan will not be able to undo what has been done during the past couple of weeks.
The opposition’s upbeat and cleverly-conducted campaign has already transformed Turkey’s political landscape.
Muharrem Ince, the candidate of the main opposition Republican People’s Party has emerged as a powerful orator and a credible, strong contender.
Other challengers for presidency, Selahattin Demirtas, the jailed candidate of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), Meral Aksener, the leader of the Good (IYI) Party and Temel Karamollaoğlu of The Felicity Party (Saadet) have also widened the space for meaningful debate.
Their campaigning activities have helped crystallize both their and the ruling party’s platforms.
In Turkey, for far too long, truth did not seem to matter.
Independent voices all but silenced, misinformation and manipulation ran rampant.
Disparaging remarks about opponents went unanswered, and those with power have become complacent.
Unexpectedly, this time, the election campaign has generated real debate.
No longer in a position of unchallenged supremacy, Mr. Erdogan and his party appear to be visibly wobbled. They are making one gaffe after another.
From forgetting where he was to getting his dates and facts wrong, President Erdogan has been showing clear signs of fatigue.
What used to pass as an awkward slip of the tongue, now attracts intense scrutiny.
Under the spotlight of a hard-fought campaign, false and inaccurate statements are challenged like never before.
Moreover, unrestrained, arbitrary use of power, a domineering style of leadership, a total lack of respect for the rule of law and human rights, along with unconventional approaches to economy, started to backfire, with immediate and severe consequences.
President Erdogan has been rallying his supporters with a promise of bringing back death penalty ever since the failed coup of July 2016. As it cannot be used retroactively for crimes of the past, few paid much attention to it.
Yet, when he recently threatened his presidential rival Selahattin Demirtas with capital punishment during a campaign speech, it took a very sinister turn.
The Justice and Development Party government has been exploiting national security concerns to increase their public support for years. When a major military operation in northern Iraq was announced at the middle of the present election campaign, with no pretense that it is an election ploy, it was very quickly exposed for what it is.
The International Crisis Group says that Turkey’s election campaign reinvigorated much-needed debate on the Kurdish question, showing that “Turkish politicians can surmount their traditional disregard for Kurdish grievances, if only for electoral dividends”. That is nothing to be sniffed at.
The lack of independence of the judiciary in Turkey has been a well-documented issue in recent years, with little or no public outcry among government supporters. Yet, a blatantly partisan tweet by a judge of the country’s top court, criticising Mr. Erdoğan’s main rival during the election campaign quickly turned into a political scandal. Even some of the ruling party members condemned the judge in question.
As the Cumhuriyet columnist Ozgur Mumcu put it in his latest column, despite an uneven, unfair race, Mr. Erdoğan and his allies are visibly loosing ground. A new culture of democracy and consensus is appearing in Turkey.
“The opposition is on the rise while the ruling party is descending. If not at this parliamentary and presidential elections, or the following local elections; or even failing that, at the inevitable next snap elections, we will definitely turn the corner.” Mumcu says.
Many others, whose opinions I value greatly, seemed to agree.
I realise it is necessary to guard against self-deceptive blind optimism.
Yet, I cannot but agree that this new-found hope for Turkey has already been truly transformative.
This post is also available in: Turkish
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