Predicting the course of Turkish politics over the next 12 months is like entering a minefield. The dominating geopolitical developments in 2015 offer a glimpse of the things to expect in 2016 and against this backdrop, prospects look bleaker than ever.<\/p>\n
The long accepted mantra of \u201cpeace at home, peace abroad\u201d is no more.<\/p>\n
Turkey is entering the new year with a war raging next door, and an increasingly bitter conflict inside its own borders.<\/p>\n
With the turmoil in Syria and Iraq showing no signs of easing, little chance exists of any significant improvement in Turkey\u2019s external security situation.<\/p>\n
Yet, the country\u2019s biggest potential weakness is its worsening domestic scene. \u00a0The widening rift between ethnic Turks and Kurds in addition to already existing deep polarization between Islamists and the secularists, is dragging the country to the edge of its own black hole.<\/p>\n
In 2016, Turkey will continue to suffer the overspill of the chaos in the Middle East and feel the consequences of its ineffective foreign policy, but its biggest challenge will be to maintain its unity and stability.<\/p>\n
The counterinsurgency campaign against the Kurdistan Workers\u2019 Party (PKK) since the end of a two-year cease-fire in July has already turned the southeast into a bloody battle ground, with a heavy toll on lives of civilians, the security forces and militants, displacement of tens of thousands of people and destruction of the local economy.<\/p>\n