{"id":28863,"date":"2016-12-30T19:12:11","date_gmt":"2016-12-30T19:12:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/?p=28863"},"modified":"2016-12-30T19:12:11","modified_gmt":"2016-12-30T19:12:11","slug":"what-awaits-turkey-in-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/what-awaits-turkey-in-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"What awaits Turkey in 2017?"},"content":{"rendered":"

This time last year, I thought that Turkey\u2019s prospects for 2016 had looked very bleak indeed, \u201cwith a war raging next door, and an increasingly bitter conflict inside its own borders<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n

12 months of worsening turmoil later, it is with even a greater trepidation that I look forward to 2017.<\/p>\n

In the last days of an exceptionally tough year, the ceasefire brokered and guaranteed by Turkey and Russia is promising a glimmer of hope for ending the civil war in Syria. If successful, Turkey will have played a crucial role towards facilitating a political settlement to the 5-year old conflict.<\/p>\n

Despite being welcomed by the United States, NATO and Staffan de Mistura (the UN envoy to Syria), the agreement is a fragile one.<\/p>\n

The growing row<\/a> between Russia and the United States over President Obama\u2019s decision to expel 35 Russian officials in retaliation for alleged Russian interference in the presidential election could not have come at a worse time.<\/p>\n

As well as being potentially detrimental to a tentative political solution to the Syrian crisis, it could drive a further wedge between Turkey and the United States at a time when Turkey is shifting away from the West towards Russia.<\/p>\n

Disquieting though the foreign policy challenges are, it is Turkey\u2019s own political, economic and security environment that makes the country vulnerable in coming months.<\/p>\n

The series of terrorist attacks that have been hitting the country have created a heightened feeling of insecurity and apprehension among people.<\/p>\n

Ongoing post-coup operations targeting thousands of civil servants, academics and journalists have built\u00a0an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Now, with virtually no public debate, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party is pushing through a controversial new draft constitution that will transform the country\u2019s political landscape.<\/p>\n

Approved by the constitutional commission just before the end of the year, the changes expanding President Erdogan\u2019s powers will be voted on by Parliament in January. When it is put to a referendum in the spring next year, I expect them to be approved by a significant majority of voters, too.<\/p>\n

Turkey looks set to move towards a more authoritarian rule in 2017.<\/p>\n

There is little reason to believe that transforming the regime into a one-man rule would have the ruling party\u2019s desired impact of stabilising the country and improving its image abroad.<\/p>\n

Without strong independent institutions and the rule of law in the country, foreign investors\u2019 perception of risk is not going to change for the better in the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

With rising oil prices, a stronger dollar and weak credit markets, a tumultuous year is very likely to be followed by a disastrous one for Turkey\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

From a new and untested president in the United States, to impending political upheaval in Europe with French and German elections on the horizon, Turkey will have many more foreign policy challenges to navigate in 2017.<\/p>\n

The impending deadline for reaching a settlement in Cyprus will be one of the first hurdles to cross. Russia\u2019s increasing influence in the region and the strategic importance given to Cyprus by Turkey at a time the Middle East is in turmoil, do not bode well for a unified Cyprus anytime soon.<\/p>\n

The membership talks with the European Union will not go anywhere, but the refugee issue may force the European leaders to refrain from an acrimonious break-up.<\/p>\n

It is relations with the Council of Europe that need to be watched carefully in the coming year. With an expected flood of applications to the European Court of Human Rights and the repeated violations of the European Convention on Human Rights, Turkey\u2019s membership of the European rights watchdog is already on life support.<\/p>\n

Turkey is entering the new year under a state of emergency, with all critical and independent voices silenced, still facing numerous security threats as well as fighting a bloody war in its neighbour\u2019s territory.<\/p>\n

It is difficult to be optimistic about how the new year will turn out.<\/p>\n

Nothing is predestined, but we know by bitter experience that much of what future will bring depends on what is happening today.<\/p>\n

I wish you all a peaceful New Year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This time last year, I thought that Turkey\u2019s prospects for 2016 had looked very bleak indeed, \u201cwith a war raging next door, and an increasingly bitter conflict inside its own borders\u201d. 12 months of worsening turmoil later, it is with even a greater trepidation that I look forward to 2017. In the last days of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[4],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28863"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28863"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28863\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28866,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28863\/revisions\/28866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}