Anket ve kamuoyu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenirli\u011finin daima sorguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de, \u00a0se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin\u00a0 isabetli tahminlerde bulunabilmek neredeyse imkans\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve parlamento se\u00e7imlerine on g\u00fcn kala, bug\u00fcne dek neredeyse rakipsiz g\u00f6r\u00fclen Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yeniden kazanmas\u0131, tabii ki ihtimal dahilinde.<\/p>\n
Elimizde g\u00fcvenilir g\u00f6stergeler yok. Ne var ki, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde yads\u0131nmayacak bir ger\u00e7ek duruyor.<\/p>\n
Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, art\u0131k ne yaparsa yaps\u0131n, son birka\u00e7 haftada ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeleri geriye \u00e7eviremez.<\/p>\n
Muhalefetin enerjik ve ustaca y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kampanyas\u0131, \u00fclkede siyasi tabloyu \u015fimdiden de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Ana muhalefet partisi CHP\u2019nin cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 aday\u0131 Muharrem \u0130nce, Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iyi bir hatip, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rakip oldu\u011funu ku\u015fkuya yer b\u0131rakmayacak \u015fekilde kan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
HDP\u2019nin cezaevinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olanaklarla ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir kampanya y\u00fcr\u00fctmeyi ba\u015faran aday\u0131 Selahattin Demirta\u015f, sesi k\u0131s\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan \u0130Y\u0130 Parti lideri Meral Ak\u015fener ve Saadet Partisi lideri Temel Karamollao\u011flu da demokratik siyaset alan\u0131n\u0131 kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015flettiler.<\/p>\n
Her d\u00f6rt liderin kampanya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, sadece kendi siyasi \u00e7izgilerini berrakla\u015ft\u0131rmakla kalmad\u0131, iktidar partisinin ideolojisi ve icraat\u0131na da \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de, ger\u00e7e\u011fe sayg\u0131n\u0131n yerini uzun s\u00fcredir g\u00fcce tap\u0131nma alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z seslerin susturuldu\u011fu bir ortamda, kas\u0131tl\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f bilgilendirme ve y\u00f6nlendirmenin haddi hesab\u0131 kalmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Muhalif olman\u0131n m\u00fcnaf\u0131kl\u0131k olarak alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkede, g\u00fcc\u00fc elinde tutanlar\u0131n \u00a0vurdumduymazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kibiri s\u0131n\u0131r tan\u0131m\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ama bu defa, hi\u00e7 beklenmedik bir \u015fekilde ve b\u00fct\u00fcn engellere ra\u011fmen, \u00a0se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131 sahici bir yar\u0131\u015fa, hararetli bir tart\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Mutlak ve sars\u0131lmaz zannedilen g\u00fcc\u00fcn sallanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hisseden iktidar partisi g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir \u015fa\u015fk\u0131nl\u0131k i\u00e7erisinde.<\/p>\n
Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan da gaf \u00fcst\u00fcne gaf yap\u0131yor. Bulundu\u011fu kentlerin ad\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihleri, ki\u015fileri, olaylar\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f hat\u0131rl\u0131yor, do\u011fru olmayan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131yor. Yorgun, bezgin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131llard\u0131r dil s\u00fcr\u00e7mesi diye ge\u00e7i\u015ftirilen hatalar, art\u0131k g\u00f6rmezden gelinmiyor, hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar sert itirazlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131yas\u0131ya s\u00fcren kampanya ortam\u0131nda, ger\u00e7eklerle ba\u011fda\u015fmayan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, mesnetsiz iddialar an\u0131nda \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, keyfi uygulamalar, bask\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6netim metodlar\u0131, hukuksuzluk, hak ihlalleri, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminde genel kabul g\u00f6ren kurallar\u0131n \u00e7i\u011fnenmesiyle birle\u015fince, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ani ve y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, Temmuz 2016\u2019daki darbe giri\u015fiminden beri, yeri geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde idam cezas\u0131n\u0131n geri getirilmesi konusunu g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yordu. \u0130dam cezas\u0131n\u0131n geriye do\u011fru i\u015flemeyece\u011fi bilindi\u011finden pop\u00fclist bir hezeyan olarak fazla da ciddiye al\u0131nm\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Oysa, \u015fimdi, se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131nda, cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yar\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakibi Selahattin Demirta\u015f\u2019\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131 anarak, e\u011fer \u00f6n\u00fcne gelirse idam\u0131 onaylayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi, \u00a0hukuk tarihine kara bir leke olarak ge\u00e7ecek \u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klama diye k\u0131nanmakta.<\/p>\n
Adalet ve Kalk\u0131nma Partisi iktidar\u0131n\u0131n ulusal g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131n\u0131 kamuoyunda deste\u011fini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullanmas\u0131 yeni degil. Ama se\u00e7ime g\u00fcnler kala Kuzey Irak\u2019ta Kandil\u2019e b\u00fcy\u00fck bir operasyon d\u00fczenleme karar\u0131, iktidar yanl\u0131s\u0131 gazetecilerin<\/a> itiraflar\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, oy kazanmak i\u00e7in at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir ad\u0131m diye yorumlan\u0131yor<\/a>.<\/p>\n Uluslararas\u0131 Kriz Grubu, 13 Haziran\u2019da yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporunda<\/a>, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n K\u00fcrt sorunu \u00fczerindeki tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u201coy kazanmak amac\u0131yla bile olsa, siyaset\u00e7ilerin K\u00fcrtlerin sorunlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 normalde tak\u0131nd\u0131klar\u0131 tavr\u0131 bir kenara koyabildiklerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc<\/em>\u201d belirtiyor.<\/p>\n Bu bile ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na kayda de\u011fer bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yarg\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi\u011fini d\u00fcnya alem biliyor ama iktidar partisinin destek\u00e7ilerinin durumdan \u015fikayet\u00e7i olduklar\u0131na pek rastlamad\u0131k.<\/p>\n Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde Dan\u0131\u015ftay \u00fcyesi Aysel Demirel\u2019in CHP\u2019nin cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 aday\u0131 Muharrem \u0130nce hakk\u0131nda Twitter\u2019dan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00a0Anayasa Hukuk\u00e7usu Prof. Dr. \u0130brahim Kabo\u011flu taraf\u0131ndan \u2018bir yarg\u0131c\u0131n s\u00fcr\u00fcklenebilece\u011fi en vahim tablo\u201d diye nitelenen Twitter payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, bu defa AKP\u2019li siyaset\u00e7ilerin bile tepkisini<\/a> \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n