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The tectonic plates underpinning the geopolitical landscape are shifting at a frightening speed. We are moving into a period where the year ahead seems certain to bring further turmoil and strife across the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Given the deteriorating regional and global outlook, how prepared is Turkey for dealing with rising tensions?<\/p>\n
The killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran\u2019s elite Quds Force, in a drone attack at Baghdad airport, has ushered a new era of uncertainty in an already volatile region. Turkey has no choice but brace itself for the fallout.<\/p>\n
There was no love lost between Turkey and the assassinated Iranian general who was the most visible face of his country\u2019s clandestine operations across the region. Very few genuinely lamented Qassem Soleimani’s death.<\/p>\n
But Iran is a neighbour, a formidable rival, with deep historical ties, strong trade and energy links to Turkey.<\/p>\n
The United States, a NATO ally, is even more formidable. Despite their never-ending love-hate relationship over a host of issues, Presidents Trump and Erdo\u011fan have a good understanding between them.<\/p>\n
A strong leader that does not abide by rules and procedures is easy to identify and admire, but President Trump\u2019s decisions and statements last week was far too unpredictable and alarming even for Turkey.<\/p>\n
Ankara knows full well that a geopolitical earthquake is under way and the timing of it could not have been worse. Turkey\u2019s leverage is short; its adversaries are more plentiful than ever.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, the biggest threat to global economic and political stability in recent years is appearing just as Turkey is becoming embroiled in yet another regional conflict. Turkey is starting to deploy troops and proxies to Libya and facing accusations of meddling and exacerbating the civil war there.<\/p>\n
Having already paid a heavy price in its 9-year-old involvement in the Syrian conflict, Turkey is now facing a new wave of refugees fleeing from Idlib.<\/p>\n
Becoming more vocal about the unpredictable consequences of recent military adventures abroad, the main opposition, The Republican People\u2019s Party is urging the government to keep Turkey away from the region\u2019s fire.<\/p>\n
Mr. Erdo\u011fan, like President Trump, is not known to pay heed to domestic opponents. However, he is less likely to ignore his powerful foreign visitor.<\/p>\n
The Russian President Viladimir Putin is in Turkey to discuss Syria and Libya and to inaugurate a third natural-gas pipeline between their countries on Wednesday.<\/p>\n