The region Turkey is located in is about to become a far more dangerous place than we have ever imagined.<\/p>\n
More than at any other time, Turkey\u2019s leaders need to have a clear view of how they will respond to unprecedented developments threatening the security of the country; to understand the complexity of the situation in their immediate neighbourhood and where it could lead them.<\/p>\n
Some of the changes in the Middle East have been well beyond Turkey\u2019s control. Yet, many more are miscalculations by the Erdogan government that are now unfolding before our eyes.<\/p>\n
It is no longer only the critics of the government saying that Turkey has a case to answer about its approach to facilitating ISIS\u2019s growth in Syria and Iraq. Turkey\u2019s own diplomats are now admitting that serious errors were committed. \u00a0In more than one confidential exchange, I have heard the expression \u201csow the wind and reap the whirlwind \u201cor even \u201craise crows and they will peck out your eyes”.<\/p>\n
One of Turkey\u2019s most influential former ambassadors with specific expertise in Iraq and the Kurds is Murat \u00d6z\u00e7elik. His recent interview<\/a> with Cansu \u00c7aml\u0131bel at Hurriyet Daily News is a must-read. \u00a0Expressing regret that Turkey has now become a mere spectator in a fast changing region, he lists more than one policy mistake, among them Turkey\u2019s approach to opposition groups in Syria and how it is perceived by outsiders. \u201cIf you create an image that you are in contact with ISIL, it is hard for you to convince them that you are not in connection with them, as long as the same people are in government.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n The recent Washington Post interview<\/a> with a senior ISIS commander in Reyhanli was seen as the evidence of Turkey rolling out the red carpet for the jihadis. The paper commented that Turkey has served as a strategically vital supply route and entry point to wage war.<\/p>\n A diplomatic spat with the NATO ally Germany over \u00a0spying<\/a> on Turkey should also be seen in this context.<\/p>\n There is no doubt Turkey\u2019s international standing has been damaged. You only need to look at the strongly worded criticism voiced in the world\u2019s leading publications lately, including the New York Times<\/a>, The Washington Post<\/a>, the Financial Times<\/a> and the Economist<\/a> . Yet, the architects of Turkey\u2019s discredited foreign policy, newly-elected president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu and the intelligence chief Hakan Fidan will go on unchallenged, albeit in different roles. Now the outgoing president Abdullah Gul has confirmed<\/a> that Mr Davutoglu is the most likely name to lead the government as the next prime minister, and the strongest candidate for the post of foreign minister seems to be Hakan Fidan; we can safely assume the policies that been implemented since 2011 will continue.<\/p>\n With 49 of its citizens held hostage by ISIS in Iraq and no prospect of securing their release, Turkey is not even a mere spectator. With more than a million refugees inside its borders and hundreds of its own citizens fighting alongside ISIS, Turkey has already become one of the victims of this war.<\/p>\n While we all turn our attention to atrocities in Iraq, ISIS is marching on in Syria, capturing new ground. \u00a0If the reports that they are closing in on northern Aleppo turn out to be accurate, Turkey should be more concerned than most.<\/p>\n Shifting regional alliances is the inevitable result of having to fight a common enemy, and it is logical that the Kurdish forces fighting ISIS must be given assistance. However, it should not be overlooked that in the long run, re-arming of Kurdish forces, among them Kurdistan Worker\u2019s Party (PKK) may have unforeseen consequences for Turkey.<\/p>\n The peace process to end the 30 year-old insurgency by the PKK may turn out to be more fragile than the government wants us to believe.\u00a0 Clashes in Lice, in the south-eastern province of Diyarbakir on 19 August over a statue of one of the PKK\u2019s founders ended up security forces firing at demonstrators, killing one person. The following day, a PKK ambush in Van killed a soldier and injured another. The tension is rising again and the government is as usual, prone to taking populist measures.<\/p>\n Turkey is moving into uncharted waters and the record of those steering the ship points to a stormy journey ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The region Turkey is located in is about to become a far more dangerous place than we have ever imagined. More than at any other time, Turkey\u2019s leaders need to have a clear view of how they will respond to unprecedented developments threatening the security of the country; to understand the complexity of the situation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/834"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=834"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/834\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=834"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=834"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}