{"id":926,"date":"2014-10-15T20:47:24","date_gmt":"2014-10-15T20:47:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/?p=926"},"modified":"2014-10-15T20:47:24","modified_gmt":"2014-10-15T20:47:24","slug":"turkey-a-misfit-in-the-anti-isis-coalition-the-london-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/turkey-a-misfit-in-the-anti-isis-coalition-the-london-view\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey: A Misfit in the anti-ISIS coalition-the London view"},"content":{"rendered":"

When it comes to capturing the world agenda, London never disappoints. After a few weeks absence, I am now backing in my home town again and London is where the most interesting debates about the crisis in the Middle East are taking place.<\/p>\n

While the region\u2019s attention is centred on Kobane, there is a growing concern about the worsening situation in other parts of the world where the threat of radical Islamism is every bit as real as in Syria. Apart from Iraq\u2019s Anbar province, where ISIS forces are on the march advancing on Baghdad\u2019s international airport, Libya seems to be \u00a0on the verge of a civil war. \u00a0Three years after the UK and France led intervention in the country, \u00a0an alliance of Islamist militia groups have already forced \u00a0Libya\u2019s \u00a0newly elected Parliament \u00a0and its legitimate government \u00a0to flee the capital Tripoli. The strongest of these militias is Ansar-al Sharia, a group affiliated with ISIS.<\/p>\n

While the international coalition tries to shape up its coordinated response to the Islamist threat, the radical (not all of them Sunni) groups everywhere seem to have developed a common goal of grabbing territory. In addition to Iraq and Syria, radical Islamists already control large areas of territory in Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen. \u00a0Seizing control of the predominantly tribal and conservative areas, radical movements such as ISIS are spreading their influence and ideology faster than their opponents are analysing them.<\/p>\n

With the global nature of the threat in mind, various seminars, meetings and discussions that I have taken part this week in London have all been focusing on Syria and Iraq. \u00a0There seems to be a near-consensus that violent Islamist movements will not be defeated by military means alone. \u00a0A long-term multinational political and security strategy in the region is urgently needed to be agreed upon and implemented.\u00a0 There seems to be a similar consensus emerging on the subject of where Turkey fits into this wider picture.<\/p>\n

The recent comments in the British media about Turkey have been strongly critical. The day after Turkey carried out air strikes against the PKK militants in the mountainous province of Hakkari, The Times newspaper referred to Recep Tayyip Erdogan as an increasingly erratic president and described Turkey\u2019s reluctance to help Kurds a \u201ccallous indifference\u201d.<\/p>\n

In an article titled \u201cErdogan\u2019s final chance to make peace with the Kurds\u201d<\/a>, David Gardner of The Financial Times wrote that Mr Erdogan was courting huge risks.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/strong>He may have taken fright that his peace initiative could become a springboard to a pan-Kurdish state. But whatever his motives, he is dividing Turkey. Up to a fifth of its population is ethnic Kurdish, and about a fifth of Turks are (heterodox Shia) Alevis, alienated by the increasingly Sunni supremacist tone of Mr Erdogan and his neo-Islamist ruling party, as well as his authoritarian\u00a0behavior. Unless he is very careful, this supremely confident leader could open Turkey\u2019s\u00a0gates to the whirlwind of sectarianism roaring across the Levant\u201d\u00a0 <\/strong>he commented.<\/p>\n

Over the years, I have attended many events at The Royal Institute of International Affairs, better known as Chatham House, some of them open to public, others held under Chatham House rule. \u00a0Until now, I had never heard such strongly critical comments directed at Turkey\u2019s leaders. \u00a0Tuesday\u2019s event <\/a>\u00a0marked the launch of a project\u00a0 \u00a0focusing on the conflict\u2019s long term impact on Syria\u2019s immediate neighbours including Turkey. There were two different panels, with prominent regional experts. The keynote speaker was no other than Lakhdar Brahimi, former UN and Arab League Special Envoy to Syria.<\/p>\n

Speakers told the audience that Turkey repeatedly made false assumptions in Syria.\u00a0 From assuming that Assad regime could be reformed to the belief that it could be quickly toppled, it based all its policy decisions on those wrong assumptions. We were told that the same people who made these mistakes were \u00a0still in charge, albeit in different posts and they were \u00a0continuing to take decisions the same way. \u00a0\u00a0What was described as \u201cErdogan\u2019s personal approach\u201d \u00a0saw the PKK as number one threat.\u00a0 The number two enemy was\u00a0 Assad.\u00a0 Worries over ISIS were lower down in the third place.\u00a0 \u00a0Because of these continuous miscalculations, Syria\u2019s strongest neighbour Turkey has now turned into a seriously weakened player, putting region\u2019s as well as its own security at risk.<\/p>\n

Lakhdar Brahimi, former UN and Arab League Special Envoy to Syria was asked what advice if any he would give to Turkish president Erdogan.\u00a0 \u201cI am sure he would not ask for my advice\u201d he replied. Warning that destruction of Syria would be felt as a spill-over everywhere else in the region, Mr Brahimi \u00a0said that Syria was not a priority for its neighbours and that had to change. Reminding the audience the UN \u00a0Secretary General\u2019s lonely and often ridiculed comments at the beginning of the conflict : \u00a0\u201cDon\u2019t \u00a0give weapons to Syria. Stop giving weapons to Syria. Have a peace plan, not a war plan\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Lakhdar Brahimi called on the key players to bring Syria and its neighbours together, including Iran and Russia. \u00a0According to Brahimi, Iran has more influence than the USA in Iraq and more influence than Russia in Syria, and for any meaningful discussion, \u00a0President Assad has to be part of the negotiations, \u00a0too.<\/p>\n

Continuing the debate after the event, I put it to a few of the Middle East watchers that it was not just Turkey that made the miscalculation. Almost all of its present critics hade misread Turkey and its Justice and Development Party \u00a0(AKP) government, too.<\/p>\n

For too long, they refused to acknowledge strong signals of creeping Islamization, repressive authoritarianism and widespread corruption in the AKP-led Turkey.<\/p>\n

A “beacon of moderate Islam”, a trustworthy ally and a lucrative business partner, Turkey has not turned into unpredictable, unreliable, unaccountable and erratic one-man regime overnight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When it comes to capturing the world agenda, London never disappoints. After a few weeks absence, I am now backing in my home town again and London is where the most interesting debates about the crisis in the Middle East are taking place. While the region\u2019s attention is centred on Kobane, there is a growing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[4],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/926"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=926"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/926\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.firdevstalkturkey.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}