The need for Turkey to perform a delicate balancing act in its relations with major foreign partners is growing each day.
Having launched the construction of the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) in a ceremony attended by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Georgia on Tuesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan felt the need to reassure the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on the phone. Turkey’s relationship with Russia has remained very warm despite disagreements over Syria. It is difficult to say the same about relations with the European Union. Yet, recently, behind closed doors, there has been a concentrated effort to repair strained relations, especially in the area of trade. When Mr Erdogan was conducting pipeline diplomacy with his Russian counterpart, simultaneously, a high-level energy dialogue and strategic energy cooperation process was being launched between his country and the European Union.
All in all, this has been a highly significant week for Turkey. Its role as an energy transit country and gas hub was reaffirmed by all the key players. Heavily dependent on each other yet increasingly hostile, both Russia and Europe wanted to have Turkey on their side.
Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe. The annexation of Crimea by Russia exactly a year ago had immediate impact on energy markets and the tension over Ukraine has made the need to diversify energy export routes more urgent.
The EU has become even more eager to establish strategic energy partnerships with more reliable transit countries such as Turkey. Crisis in Ukraine has raised the role of Turkey as an energy hub for Europe, but it has also made Turkey more important for Russia too. Russia sees Turkey as an important ally and alternative route for its natural gas. Putin’s unexpected announcement on 1st December 2014 of the suspension of the South Stream pipeline and re-routing it to Turkey was his way of retaliating against the West.
Turkey’s balancing act in the energy field has been impressive so far. In addition to Russian South Stream turning into Turkish Stream, Turkey will be hosting the EU’s strategically important Southern Gas corridor. The 1,850 kilometre long Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) will be linking the existing route carrying Azerbaijani gas to Europe.
All of this is good news for Turkey. Unlike the much exaggerated view of itself as a big global player and a game-setter in the Middle East, Turkey does have a significant weight in the energy field thanks to its geographical position as a natural energy bridge and its well-established political and economic ties to all major players.
As for the EU, it may be easier to create an energy partnership with Turkey than to to agree a common position among its members on an energy union. The European Union is already struggling to keep up pressure on Russia through sanctions. Politically, the Russian president gives no sign of backing off. On the first anniversary of annexing Crimea from Ukraine, Mr. Putin signed a treaty incorporating the Georgian republic of South Ossetia with Russia, prompting angry responses from the EU, NATO and the USA for violating Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and ignoring the principles of international law.
Balancing its own economic and political interests with that of its international obligations, Turkey is operating on several mine-fields at the same time. Mr. Erdogan is going to Ukraine on 20th March for his first official visit as the president. Bilateral trade between Turkey and Ukraine has been hit because of the war with Russia. The Russian economy, in crisis due to Western sanctions, has meant a sharp fall in bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia, too.
Instability caused by the Ukraine conflict may have increased Turkey’s geo-political importance in energy but it has not helped its trade relations. NATO-member Turkey, with European Union membership aspirations and deep historical ties to the region, has been criticized for failing to raise its voice against the Russian annexation of Crimea. Mr Erdogan’s itinerary includes high level political and business contacts as well as a meeting with the representatives of the Crimean Tatars. It will be an interesting visit to see how well the Turkish president can really juggle.
This post is also available in: Turkish
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