Soon after the snap elections were announced in April, I was at a seminar in London where we were asked to predict the likely outcome of Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary vote.
At that early stage in the campaign, there appeared to be a wide agreement among participants that another Erdoğan victory could be predicted with certainty.
I, too, agreed that for a divided opposition to successfully challenge Mr. Erdoğan and all the elements of his propaganda machine would, indeed, be a tall order.
“However, there is more chance of the hubris, recklessness and greed of the Justice and Development Party’s 16 year-rule ruining their own chances than the success of their opponents”, I remarked.
In hindsight, considering how the repeated acts of economic and political self-harm by the President and his party have backfired since then, I was not altogether wrong.
However, today, I have a much more upbeat assessment of the opposition’s prospects for the upcoming snap elections.
The possibility or likelihood of an opposition victory is greater; and it is not just because the ruling party has been shooting itself in the foot; but mainly because the opposition has finally cooperated and produced leaders to inspire, even heal Turkey.
Much of the credit must go to Muharrem Ince, the 54-year-old Republican People’s Party candidate for the presidency.
Fighting the election on an unlevel playing field and under an emergency rule, the former high school physics teacher has displayed remarkable resilience and ability to communicate with the voters. He is a formidable opponent and Mr. Erdoğan knows it.
Turkish media, saturated with the President’s campaign activities, gives very little coverage to Mr. Ince. Nevertheless, the two television programmes he has appeared in so far, received record ratings.
Other opposition candidates get little to no coverage. Mrs Akşener is ignored. Mr. Demirtaş is banned.
Misuse of administrative resources and active involvement of officials, such as state administrators and senior military officers, in Mr. Erdoğan’s electioneering, make the whole process a travesty of free and fair election.
Despite these hurdles, Muharrem Ince has been pulling huge crowds. If you ignore the occasional nativist, sexist, xenophobic slips of the tongue, he has been maintaining a consistent campaign rhetoric based on values of fundamental rights and freedoms, democracy and the rule of law. He has been putting great emphasis on education, science and friendly relations with the rest of the world.
Meral Akşener, another presidential candidate of the opposition IYI (Good) Party is also addressing big, cheering crowds. In recent days, she has been moderating her ultra-nationalist rhetoric.
The Peoples’ Democratic Party’s (HDP) jailed candidate Selahattin Demirtaş’ campaign, conducted via social media and through his lawyers, is the most difficult one. However, there is every indication he, too, is picking up momentum.
Less than a month to go before the June 24th elections, the next crucial step for the opposition would be to take every possible measure to prevent vote rigging.
Controversial decisions taken by the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) to change election rules and to relocate polling stations are particularly concerning for the opposition.
So much so, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Iyi (Good) Party and Saadet (Felicity) Party have put their reservations about being on any common ground with the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) aside and teamed up with the pro-Kurdish opposition to ensure ballot box safety.
Civil society initiatives such as “Sensiz Olmaz Hareketi” is mobilizing lawyers to be present in voting stations to ensure the integrity of the upcoming elections. One of their leading coordinators, Eser Başaran calls everyone to do whatever they can to protect their vote.
Alongside the efforts of political parties and civil society organizations, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) election observation mission will be observing the election for compliance with international obligations and standards.
As part of the observation, the mission will also conduct comprehensive monitoring of the media.
After the April 2017 referendum, the OSCE and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) observation report was angrily dismissed by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Rejecting their criticisms, Mr. Erdoğan then told the OSCE monitors to “know your place.”
This time, too, if the Chairman of the Supreme Electoral Council’s response is anything to go by, the response will not be much different.
Refusing to meet the OSCE delegation, Chairman Sadi Güven was reported as saying “it is waste of time talking”.
This post is also available in: Turkish
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